2023 Large-Size TFT LCD Panel Shipment Forecast: BOE, Innolux, TCL

OVERVIEW

According to Omdia's latest Large-Size Display Panel Market Tracker for Q1 2023, the previous quarter's forecast for large-size LCD panel shipments in 2023 was for a 0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase due to slowing demand and panel makers' crop management, which has been adjusted to a negative year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of -3.2% in this quarter's latest report.

Some panel makers are planning to exit the business, while others are planning to shut down old panel production lines. However, despite the decline in shipments, large-size panel shipment area is expected to grow by 1.7% year-on-year in 2023, compared with a 3% year-on-year increase in the previous forecast. Panel makers expect the move toward larger sizes for TV and monitor display panels to help boost shipment area in 2023.

"In previous forecasts, display panel makers were aiming to boost IT display panel shipments and lower LCD TV panel shipments in 2023. demand recovery for IT LCD panels remains uncertain as display panel makers have experienced significant losses in their IT LCD panel business. Display panel makers expect demand for LCD panels to recover once inventory issues are resolved, but some headline brands have yet to fully address the situation. Even though inventories are back to normal, computer brands/OEMs are keeping inventories at lower levels than before." said Peter Su, principal analyst at Omdia.

In previous forecasts, panel makers had set a very aggressive target of 1.9% year-over-year growth in notebook LCD panel shipments by 2023. However, the latest forecasts show a less optimistic result - a year-on-year decline of 8.1 percent. In fact, laptop panel demand is growing more slowly than other large-format panel applications.

Unlike notebook and monitor LCD panels, the decline in shipments of tablet PC LCD panels slowed from a 2.7% year-over-year decline to a 1.4% year-over-year decline in the latest forecast. As a result of the global recession, lower-priced tablets may gain some laptop market share.

Large-format TFT LCD panel revenue is forecast to reach $65.2 billion in 2023, down 0.9% year-over-year due to slowing demand and recovering IT LCD panel prices. Only TV LCD panel revenue is expected to rise 13.6% year-over-year, as TV panel prices have risen since the first quarter of 2023.

BOE is expected to top the large-size TFT LCD panel shipment chart in 2023 with a 33.5 percent market share, followed by Innolux with 13.5 percent and TCL with 11.5 percent.